Coalition partners push back, reject cabinet portfolio swaps

Ongoing speculation over a cabinet reshuffle—now stretching into its sixth month—has begun to take a visible toll on public confidence in the government of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. The prolonged uncertainty has left many civil servants in a “wait-and-see” mode, stalling key decisions across ministries, while the business sector hesitates to invest amid concerns that a future cabinet shake-up could bring policy changes.

At the heart of the delay is a fundamental disagreement between two influential figures: former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his daughter, current Prime Minister Paetongtarn. Thaksin reportedly wants to forcefully reclaim control of the Interior Ministry from the Bhumjaithai Party, led by Anutin Charnvirakul—an aggressive move that could trigger a political confrontation with the so-called "Blue Network."

In contrast, Paetongtarn has been trying to preserve unity among coalition parties, aiming to avoid a breakdown that could destabilise both her government and the broader Shinawatra political dynasty. For her, the conflict between the Red and Blue factions is not just about power—it’s also about survival.

The Blue Network, with its deeply entrenched local influence, has been far from passive. Bhumjaithai and its allies have extended their reach into local administrative structures and even positioned allies within key independent agencies through aligned senators. These calculated moves have raised alarm within Pheu Thai's leadership.

In response, the Shinawatra camp is reportedly preparing a counteroffensive—pushing forward legal action related to the alleged Senate collusion case, dismantling local networks, and using the anticipated cabinet reshuffle as a strategic tool to reclaim control. The goal: retake core ministries from Bhumjaithai, starting with the coveted Interior Ministry.

Earlier this year, Paetongtarn publicly insisted there would be no cabinet changes. However, over the past two weeks, she has softened her stance, acknowledging that a reshuffle is under consideration, fueling speculation that negotiations are already underway behind closed doors.

Sources suggest that Thaksin favours a “portfolio swap” with Bhumjaithai, with the Interior Ministry at the centre of the deal. In return, discussions have floated the possibility of trading key ministries such as Transport or Commerce. One scenario involves offering the Commerce Ministry an added deputy ministerial seat, although Bhumjaithai has yet to signal interest.

Ultimately, the success of any reshuffle hinges on one critical variable: whether Thaksin and Bhumjaithai’s de facto powerbroker, Newin Chidchob, is willing to sit down and strike a deal. Until that happens, the political deadlock is unlikely to break, and the costs to policy momentum and investor confidence will only continue to mount.

While Anutin once appeared willing to concede the Interior Ministry under pressure from Pheu Thai’s “Red Camp,” recent developments suggest a shift in posture. Sources indicate that Anutin, though initially open to a reassignment—provided Bhumjaithai retained control over another high-profile ministry—has since hardened his stance.

Observers see this as a sign that Bhumjaithai may be prepared to acquiesce in order to remain part of the ruling coalition. However, party Newin has reportedly taken a firm position, signalling Bhumjaithai's readiness to fight back.

The first move in the party’s counterstrategy is to reject outright Thaksin’s attempt to reclaim the Interior Ministry. In response, Bhumjaithai is expected to assert its ministerial quota and insist that all current portfolios remain unchanged—no swaps, no reshuffles.

Party insiders say Bhumjaithai will base its argument on internal performance metrics, claiming its ministers have met or exceeded key performance indicators (KPIs) and that there is no reason to remove or reassign them. The party will also emphasise that its ministers have operated effectively without controversy, reinforcing the case for continuity.

All eyes are now on the coming week, as Newin and his "Blue Team" prepare to mobilise politically in full force. Their aim: to block Thaksin and Pheu Thai from advancing further into Bhumjaithai’s political turf, while preserving their stake in the coalition government. The outcome of this standoff could reshape the balance of power within Thailand’s ruling bloc.

The political atmosphere within the ruling Pheu Thai Party is becoming increasingly active—if not restless. Behind the scenes, party insiders report a surge of lobbying efforts, as aspiring figures manoeuvre to secure ministerial appointments.

Nicknamed the “runners,” these individuals are seizing the moment to connect with key decision-makers known internally by code names “V1,” “V2,” and “V3”—figures believed to hold influence over the final cabinet list. Many of the names being floated are seasoned politicians who held office during the Srettha Thavisin administration. These include former Prime Minister’s Office Minister Jakrapong Saengmanee, former Tourism and Sports Minister Sermsak Pongpanit, former Public Health Minister Cholnan Srikaew, and former Defence Minister Sutin Klungsang.

Despite these behind-the-scenes moves, senior Pheu Thai figures—including party patriarch Thaksin and Prime Minister Paetongtarn —are reportedly discouraging overt jockeying. The leadership is concerned that internal lobbying could complicate high-stakes negotiations with coalition partners, particularly the ongoing standoff with Bhumjaithai.

With party unity and strategic cabinet leverage hanging in the balance, the question remains: Will Thaksin and Paetongtarn allow these “runners” to influence the final cabinet lineup—or will they hold the line to protect the broader political equation?

Internal tensions within the United Thai Nation Party (UTN) are escalating following a political manoeuvre by Deputy Commerce Minister Suchart Chomklin, who has publicly challenged the party's leadership. Suchart recently hosted a dinner meeting with several UTN MPs and shared a photo from the gathering, widely seen as a signal of his intention to lead a defection to the emerging Opportunity Party backed by influential political figures operating behind the scenes.

Observers suggest Suchart aims to oust both Deputy Prime Minister and Energy Minister Pirapan Salirathavibhaga and Industry Minister Akanat Promphan, UTN’s leader and secretary-general, respectively. As part of the rumoured deal, Suchart is reportedly eyeing the Industry Ministry portfolio for himself, while the Energy Ministry would revert to the control of the so-called “backroom power broker” believed to be supporting the new faction.

In response, Pirapan and Akanat have begun pushing back, rallying UTN loyalists and conducting headcounts of MPs still aligned with the party's core leadership—a show of strength intended to blunt Suchart’s momentum and reassert control.

The outcome of this internal power struggle is expected to unfold soon, as UTN lawmakers face a critical decision: whether to remain with Pirapan and Ekanat, or break away with Suchart and align themselves with the rising political force behind the Opportunity Party.

The Kla Tham Party, under the strategic leadership of Thammanat Prompao, appears to have lost political clout following a failed show of force in parliament. Previously, Thammanat had claimed the party had 11 “cobra MPs” — opposition defectors — on standby, ready to shift the balance. However, during the crucial vote on the 2026 Budget Bill, none of these supposed defectors surfaced, leaving key figures in the ruling Pheu Thai Party disappointed.

The absence of this anticipated support has complicated the political arithmetic surrounding the anticipated cabinet reshuffle, undermining Kla Tham's bargaining power.

Meanwhile, prospects for Kla Tham leader Narumon Pinyosinwat to return to her previous post as Deputy Finance Minister have reportedly been shut down. A confidential plan to expand influence within the Finance Ministry was allegedly exposed, prompting key power brokers to leave Kla Tham’s portfolio unchanged, meaning the party will retain the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, with Narumon remaining in her current role.

As negotiations over the reshuffle drag into their sixth month, tensions between Pheu Thai and coalition partner Bhumjaithai remain unresolved. With both parties holding firm to conflicting demands, the cabinet reshuffle, once seen as a routine mid-term adjustment, has now become a defining test of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s leadership.

How these high-stakes negotiations unfold in June may ultimately determine whether the Paetongtarn government survives—or collapses under the weight of its own contradictions.